With the looming threat of “Disease X” – a potential future pandemic on the scale of Covid-19 – experts warn we must be prepared for a significant global health crisis. Some forecasts suggest there is a one in four chance of such an outbreak in the next decade, potentially caused by influenza, another coronavirus, or a completely new pathogen. In the face of this unsettling prediction, many are asking: could artificial intelligence (AI) play a crucial role in managing the next pandemic?
AI as an Early Warning System
Researchers in California are working on an AI-driven early warning system to track potential pandemics. Led by experts from the University of California, Irvine (UCI), and the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), the project is part of the US National Science Foundation’s initiative to prevent future pandemics. The system analyses social media posts, including billions of tweets from X (formerly Twitter), to detect patterns that may signal an impending outbreak.
Professor Chen Li, who co-leads the project at UCI’s Department of Computer Science, says the system uses machine learning to categorise and identify significant events in real-time, potentially predicting outbreaks and assessing the effectiveness of public health interventions. However, the reliance on X presents challenges, especially in regions where the platform is restricted.
Despite these limitations, Prof Li believes AI can be a valuable tool for health departments and hospitals, enabling faster detection and response to emerging threats. Expanding the system’s reach globally remains a challenge, but researchers are working to overcome data scarcity in other regions.
Predicting New Virus Variants
AI is also proving its worth in monitoring the evolution of viruses. Harvard Medical School and the University of Oxford have developed EVEScape, an AI tool that predicts new variants of coronavirus, providing vital insights for vaccine manufacturers and researchers. Every two weeks, EVEScape ranks new variants based on their potential risk, and it has already demonstrated success in forecasting mutations of other viruses, such as HIV and influenza.
Nikki Thadani, who was involved in developing EVEScape, highlights how the tool offers early insights into viral mutations, allowing scientists to anticipate changes in the virus and adapt therapeutic approaches. This early warning system could be crucial in the event of another pandemic, giving researchers a head start in developing treatments and vaccines.
Speeding Up Antibody Discovery
Pharmaceutical giant AstraZeneca is also leveraging AI to speed up the discovery of antibodies, which play a key role in the body’s immune response and are crucial in vaccine development. Jim Wetherall, the firm’s vice president of data science and AI R&D, explains that AI enables AstraZeneca to quickly screen and evaluate potential antibodies, cutting the time needed to identify effective candidates from three months to just three days.
Wetherall believes this rapid response capability is essential for pandemic preparedness, especially when dealing with rapidly mutating viruses like Covid-19. By streamlining the discovery process, AI could significantly improve the speed at which vaccines and treatments are developed in future pandemics.
Accelerating Pandemic Preparedness
The Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI), which has supported the development of tools like EVEScape, sees AI as a game changer in pandemic response. Dr In-Kyu Yoon, CEPI’s director of programmes and innovative technology, stresses that AI can enhance preparedness by speeding up processes and providing valuable insights earlier in a pandemic. However, he warns that AI is not a panacea, and its effectiveness depends on the quality of the data it receives.
“AI still depends on the information that is inputted,” Yoon says. “If the data is flawed or incomplete, the AI’s predictions will be limited. It’s a tool that can enhance our response, but it won’t prevent the next pandemic by itself.”
The Human Element in AI
While AI can provide powerful tools for managing pandemics, experts caution that it should not be seen as a substitute for human judgement. Dr Philip AbdelMalik, head of intelligence, innovation, and integration at the World Health Organization (WHO), emphasises that AI must be used responsibly, with ethical considerations at the forefront.
“If we feed it information without reviewing it, the AI could produce biased or inaccurate results,” Dr AbdelMalik explains. “It’s essential that humans remain in control of decision-making processes and ensure that AI tools are used equitably.”
Dr AbdelMalik also raises concerns about misinformation, which can distort AI’s outputs if not carefully managed. He notes that AI can be useful in monitoring dangerous online trends, such as unproven treatments, allowing the WHO to intervene when necessary.
Building Trust for the Future
While AI holds immense potential to improve pandemic preparedness, it is not the only factor that will determine success in the next global health crisis. Dr AbdelMalik argues that trust, transparency, and collaboration between governments, organisations, and the public are just as crucial as technological advancements.
“Technology is not our limiting factor,” he says. “We need to focus on building trust and ensuring information sharing across all sectors. Without trust, even the most advanced tools will be ineffective.”
Nikki Thadani echoes this sentiment, adding that although AI can help us better prepare for future pandemics, there is still work to be done in the fields of biology, epidemiology, and public health to make full use of the technology.
“We’re much better off now than we were before Covid-19,” Thadani says. “But we still have a long way to go in refining our understanding of diseases and how best to respond to them.”
A Tool for the Future
In summary, AI has the potential to revolutionise how we prepare for and respond to pandemics. From predicting outbreaks to accelerating vaccine development, the technology offers promising solutions. However, it must be integrated with human expertise, sound data, and global cooperation to truly make a difference when the next pandemic strikes.
As the world braces for the possibility of “Disease X,” AI will undoubtedly play a key role in managing future health crises – but the responsibility for our collective health remains firmly in human hands.
